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76405 LEGO Hogwarts Express. This Harry Potter LEGO set is right on track. Are you ready to take a leap onto platform 9 ¾ and board the newest LEGO Harry Potter themed LEGO set? Launched in August 2022, the Hogwarts Express Collector’s Edition, is the most expensive Hogwarts set to date, consisting of 5129 pieces to produce the 1:32 scale replica of one of the world’s most iconic steam trains.
Set Details
The size of set must be seen to be believed, at 118cm long, 26cm high and 20cm wide, a large display space is needed if you are intending to build the set.
The set includes 4 instruction manuals – one each for the engine, tender and track, carriage, and platform; allowing up to 4 people to share the building experience.
The set was designed by Harry Potter Design Lead Marcos Bessa, who is the architect for most of the current Harry Potter theme, it has been claimed that the facial features of the Train Conductor minifigure in the set is modelled on the designer.
Characters from 4 different movies are captured in 20 minifigures in the set, including 4 Harrys from different stages in his life. Ron Weasley, Hermione Granger, the Train Conductor, and the Trolley Witch (complete with cart of magical sweets), Luna Lovegood, Draco Malfoy to name but a few are also included. All minifigures come with their own Hogwarts Express Ticket to board the train!
The set contains features accurate to the films, including luggage trunks, chocolate frogs, detailed train compartments and quotes from the movies.
The set has faced some small criticism, due to the repetitive nature of the black base, but once this is achieved, the rest of the build is fun. Builders with a keen eye may notice a typo on the schedule, which is placed beneath the platform, with the train leaving from ‘King Cross’ Station, although this may be rectified in later production runs.
| Model Name | Hogwarts Express |
| Model Number | 76405 |
| Theme | Harry Potter |
| Sub Themes | – |
| Pieces | 5129 |
| Minifigures | 20 |
| Column Launch Date | August 2022 |
| Current Status | Current |
| Date Retired | (Estimated 2025) |
| RRP | £430 |
Investment Potential
Having only been released in August it is hard to be too confident on this set as an investment currently with it expected to stay available at retail sale for at least another 2 or 3 years and potentially longer.
The Harry Potter general sub-theme has annual growth of 5% again not making this a must buy from an investment angle and we would want to see an increase from this level before investing. Previous incarnations of the Hogwarts Express have included Harry Potter Prisoner of Azkaban Hogwarts Express (75955) which is still available at retail sale for £79.99 but could well be a better investment in the short term as it is expected to retire at the end of 2022. (Use code LEGO®OFFER at John Lewis to save £10 on this set).
| Launch RRP | £430 |
| Price Per Piece | £0.08 |
| Launch Price per piece | £0.08 |
| Current Value | £430 |
| Growth to Date | N/A |
| Annualised Growth Since Retirement | N/A |
| 1st Year Value | £430 |
| Percentage Increase | 0% |
| 5th Year Value | £546 |
| Percentage Increase | 27% |
| Expected Annual Growth | 8% |
Theme Analysis
Since its launch just over 20 years ago, there have been 127 LEGO Harry Potter sets, spread across a variety of different sub-themes, including the 6 individual books and a general one (which this set sits within). The wider theme has since an average annualised growth of 6% but there are many examples of sets with higher growth than this.
| Set Number | Set Name | Retired Date | RRP | Current Value | Total Growth | Annualised Growth |
| 5378 | Hogwarts Castle | December 2007 | £70 | £552 | 689% | 15% |
| 4729 | Dumbeldore’s Office | December 2004 | £45 | £122 | 171% | 6% |
| 75956 | Quidditch Match | November 2020 | £35 | £47 | 34% | 16% |
| 4867 | Hogwarts | September 2012 | £50 | £104 | 108% | 8% |
Comparable Set Analysis
This is the 7th Hogwarts Express train LEGO have released and by far the biggest and the grandest of them. The very first one (4708) was released in 2001 in the Philosopher’s Stone sub-theme.
The sets have all done well since retirement, returning annualised growth of between 8% and 13% making these sets strong investment and underpinning the future value of this collector’s set.
| Set Number | Set Name | Retired Date | RRP | Current Value | Total Growth | Annualised Growth |
| 4708 | Hogwarts Express | December 2003 | £40 | £172 | 330% | 8% |
| 4758 | Hogwarts Express | December 2005 | £35 | £211 | 503% | 11% |
| 10132 | Motorised Hogwarts Express | December 2005 | £90 | £718 | 698% | 13% |
| 4841 | Hogwarts Express | November 2011 | £82 | £192 | 134% | 8% |
| 40028 | Mini Hogwarts Express | September 2012 | £4 | £12 | 200% | 11% |
| 75955 | Hogwarts Express | – | £75 | £75 | – | – |
Conclusion
Whilst we rarely recommend purchasing sets early in their retail run as long-term investments (preferring to wait until closer to their retirement date to purchase), this is a set we would consider doing so for.
Over several iterations the Hogwarts Express has a proven track record of providing annualised growth at a minimum of 8% and whilst this growth appears to have slowed in recent years we still think this will be a strong investment over the long term.
If you are put off by the length still to run as a retail set then we would recommend picking up the sets smaller brother 75955, which is due to retire next month and may see an appreciation in value over a shorter timescale (discussed here in our sets retiring December 2022 article), then look to purchase this one in a couple of years’ time.
