Which Retiring LEGO Harry Potter sets should you buy as a LEGO Investment
Published: 6 months ago
Last Updated: 5 months ago
obvious place to look was at the two LEGO Harry Potter sets that are due to retire in the next few months, LEGO Hogwarts Astronomy Tower (75969) and LEGO Hogsmeade Village Visit (76388), both of which are due to become retired LEGO at the end of July this year.
We have taken a deep dive into both of these sets to see which, if either, would make for a strong LEGO Harry Potter investment, looking at the 2 sets in detail, the LEGO Harry Potter theme and the 2 relevant sub-themes; LEGO Harry Potter Half Blood Prince and LEGO Harry Potter Prisoner of Azkhaban all from an investing in LEGO perspective.
75969 LEGO Hogwarts Astronomy Tower
The Hogwarts Astronomy Tower is a pivotal location in the Harry Potter stories, serving as a hub of magical learning and important plot developments! Situated at the highest point of the Hogwarts castle, this tower is where students study the stars and learn about the magical properties of celestial bodies in Astronomy classes. In the stories, it's a place of wonder and mystery, where characters including Harry, Ron, and Hermione often find themselves gazing at the night sky, discovering secrets, and contemplating their next adventures. The LEGO Harry Potter Hogwarts Astronomy Tower set brings this iconic location to life, allowing fans to recreate scenes from the books and movies, from Dumbledore's office to the starry observation deck, where key events like the Yule Ball and Dumbledore's Army meetings took place.
Set Details
Featuring 971 pieces and packed with iconic rooms, beloved characters, and enchanting accessories, this set brings to life key locations from the Harry Potter movies, including Professor Slughorn's office, the Ravenclaw Dormitory, the Orrery room, and the telescope room. The set includes 8 popular minifigures, such as Harry Potter, Hermione Granger, and Luna Lovegood, along with a Hedwig toy and various authentic accessories like mandrake plants, letters, wands, and a book of potions. Each room is thoughtfully designed to accommodate at least one minifigure and their furnishings, creating a vibrant and immersive Hogwarts experience. One standout feature is the central hall with charming shelves and a delightful table featuring a chocolate fountain!
LEGO 75969 Investment Potential
LEGO 75969 has nearly 1,000 pieces for its $100 RRP with a per brick cost of 10c and comes with 8 unique LEGO minifigures which have a current value of approximately $25, the pick of the minifigures being LEGO Horace Slughorn and LEGO Draco Malfoy.
LEGO Hogwarts Astronomy Tower is due to retire in July, having had a 4 year shelf life. Despite a longish shelf life the LEGO 75969 has only had infrequent, shallow discounts and when out of stock at LEGO has sold above RRP on other platforms including Amazon. With a projected average growth of 14% a year from when it retires in a few months we are projecting a 88% LEGO investment return over the next 5 years, expecting LEGO 75969 to outperform the wider LEGO Harry Potter theme.
76388 LEGO Hogsmeade Village Visit
Hogsmeade Village is the only all-wizarding village in Britain! Located near Hogwarts School, Hogsmeade is a bustling village where students can escape the confines of the school and enjoy a taste of the wizarding world. Hogsmeade is the place where Harry and his friends often visit to browse magical shops like Honeydukes for sweets and pick up supplies at Zonko's Joke Shop. It's also where the iconic Shrieking Shack is located, known for its mysterious and haunted reputation!
Set Details
This snow-covered Hogsmeade village is a delightful play-and-display set featuring 6 minifigures: Harry Potter, Dean Thomas, Professor McGonagall™, Madam Rosmerta, Mr. Flume, and Mrs. Flume and also an exclusive golden Ron Weasley minifigure; marking 20 years of LEGO Harry Potter. Children can immerse themselves in the wizarding world as they explore the richly detailed Honeydukes™ sweet shop and The Three Broomsticks pub, both recreated in a 2-storey build. From the exterior with its snow roof and arched gables to the interior filled with fireplaces, sweets, and candies on display, every corner is designed to spark creativity. The set also includes 3 smaller outdoor builds for added play opportunities.
LEGO 76388 Investment Potential
LEGO 76388 has just over 850 pieces for the $90 RRP with a per brick cost of 11c and comes with 7 unique LEGO minifigures which currently are valued at $20 with LEGO Ron Weasley being the most valuable one of them.
LEGO Hogsmeade Village Visit is also expected to retire in July having had a 3 year shelf life. LEGO 76388 has been regularly discounted throughout its retail life with relatively weak demand compared to it’s supply. At Investabrick we are projecting that it will underperform the wider LEGO Harry Potter theme and the LEGO Prisoner of Azkhaban sub-theme with a projected annual growth of 8% delivery LEGO investment returns of just 45% over the next 5 years.
The LEGO Harry Potter Theme
LEGO Harry Potter has been one of the headline LEGO themes since it was launched in 2001 and there have now been over 150 sets released, which have delivered average LEGO investment returns of 10% a year. A good solid theme, but without being one of the strongest from a LEGO investment perspective, it is still one where there are some very strong sets within.
Some strong examples historically include LEGO Hogwarts Castle (5378) which had an RRP of $90 when it retired in 2007 and is now valued at $641, over 600% total growth (equivalent to 13% annualised growth). LEGO Quidditch Match had a $20 RRP when it retired in 2012 and is now valued at almost 4 times this amount (13% annualised growth). LEGO Hogwarts (4867) has tripled in value since retiring with an RRP of $50 in 2012 (10% annualised growth) and LEGO Diagon Alley (10217) has seen 150% growth from its $150 RRP (8% annualised growth).
LEGO Harry Potter Sub-Themes
Half Blood Prince
There have previously only been 2 sets retired within the LEGO Half Blood Prince sub-theme but the performance of both has been encouraging when considering the future of LEGO Hogwarts Astronomy Tower. LEGO The Burrow (4840) has seen 20% growth since retiring at the end of 2011 (11% annualised growth) whilst more recently LEGO Attack on the Burrow (75890) has seen 22% growth since retiring at the end of 2022.
Prisoner of Azkhaban
The LEGO Prisoner of Azkhaban subtheme has performed in line with the overall LEGO Harry Potter theme delivering LEGO investment returns of 10% a year on average.
LEGO Sirius Black’s Escape (4753) has seen over 500% total growth from its RRP of $20 since retiring in 2004 (10% annualised growth), LEGO Hogwarts Castle (4757) is now worth 5 times its RRP of $90 since retiring in 2005 (9% annualised growth). A couple more recent sets have also seen strong performance; LEGO Buckbeak’s Rescue (75947) has seen 37% growth since retiring at the end of 2021 and LEGO The Knight Bus (75957) has seen 28% growth in the same period.
Conclusion
For us there is quite a clear winner between these 2 potential LEGO investment sets from the Harry Potter theme and at Investabrick we would recommend buying LEGO Hogwarts Astronomy Tower (76388) as a LEGO Investment.
A great looking set with a decent build experience, consistent strong demand whilst at retail sale and rare and quite shallow discounting in addition to selling above RRP when out of stock at LEGO. The LEGO Harry Potter theme is solid and strong enough to support picking individual sets to invest in without doing so solely on the theme.
In contrast we won’t be adding LEGO Hogsmeade Village Visit (76388) to Investabricks LEGO Investment portfolio. The red flag for us have been the level of discounting on the set that has been prevalent for a large portion of its retail life. If you are looking to buy this set still then we would definitely recommend searching out 20%+ discounts to the RRP before it retires in July.
